F.Y B.COM
SEMESTER - 2
BUSINESS STATISTICS
(BS)
MCQS - UNIT 2 (TIME SERIES)
TIME SERIES
1. An orderly set of data arranged in accordance with their time of occurrence is called:
(a) Arithmetic series
(b) Harmonic series
(c) Geometric series
(d) Time series
2. A time series consists of:
(a) Short-term variations
(b) Long-term variations
(c) Irregular variations
(d) All of the above
3. Secular trend can be measured by:
(a) Two methods
(b) Three methods
(c) Four methods
(d) Five methods
4. The secular trend is measured by the method of semi-averages when:
(a) Time series based on yearly values
(b) Trend is linear
(c) Time series consists of even number of values
(d) None of them
5. Increase in the number of patients in the hospital due to heat stroke is:
(a) Secular trend
(b) Irregular variation
(c) Seasonal variation
(d) Cyclical variation
6. In time series seasonal variations can occur within a period of:
(a) Four years
(b) Three years
(c) less than One year
(d) Nine years
7. Wheat crops badly damaged on account of rains is:
(a) Cyclical movement
(b) Random movement
(c) Secular trend
(d) Seasonal movement
8. The method of moving average is used to find the:
(a) Secular trend
(b) Seasonal variation
(c) Cyclical variation
(d) Irregular variation
9. A complete cycle consists of a period of:
(a) Prosperity and depression
(b) Prosperity and recovery
(c) Prosperity and recession
(d) Recession and recovery
10. A complete cycle passes through:
(a) Two stages
(b) Three stages
(c) Four stages
(d) Difficult to tell
11. Most frequency used mathematical model of a time series is:
(a) Additive model
(b) Mixed model
(c) Multiplicative model
(d) Regression model
12. In a straight line equation Y = a + bX; a is the:
(a) X-intercept
(b) Slope
(c) Y-intercept
(d) None of them
13. In a straight line equation Y = a + bX; b is the:
(a) Y-intercept
(b) Slope
(c) X-intercept
(d) Trend
14. Value of b in the trend line Y = a + bX is:
(a) Always negative
(b) Always positive
(c) Always zero
(d) Both negative or positive
15. In semi averages method, we divide the data into:
(a) Two parts
(b) Two equal parts
(c) Three parts
(d) depending on size of data
16. In fitting a straight line, the value of slope b remain unchanged with the change of:
(a) Scale
(b) Origin
(c) Both (a) and (b)
(d) Neither (a) and (b)
17. Moving average method is used for measurement of trend when:
(a) Trend is linear
(b) Trend is non linear
(c) Trend is curvilinear
(d) None of them
18. Indicate which of the following an example of seasonal variations is:
(a) Death rate decreased due to advance in science
(b) The sale of air condition increases during summer
(c) Recovery in business
(d) Sudden causes by wars
19. The most commonly used mathematical method for measuring the trend is:
(a) Moving average method
(b) Semi average method
(c) Method of least squares
(d) None of them
20. A trend is the better fitted trend for which the sum of squares of residuals is:
(a) Maximum
(b) Minimum
(c) Positive
(d) Negative
21. Decomposition of time series is called:
(a) Histogram
(b) Analysis of time series
(c) Histogram
(d) Detrending
22. The fire in a factory is an example of:
(a) Secular trend
(b) Seasonal movements
(c) Cyclical variations
(d) Irregular variations
23. Increased demand of admission in the subject of computer in Pakistan is:
(a) Secular trend
(b) Cyclical trend
(c) Seasonal trend
(d) Irregular trend
24. Damages due to floods, droughts, strikes fires and political disturbances are:
(a) Trend
(b) Seasonal
(c) Cyclical
(d) Irregular
25. The general pattern of increase or decrease in economics or social phenomena is shown by:
(a) Seasonal trend
(b) Cyclical trend
(c) Secular trend
(d) Irregular trend
26. In moving average method, we cannot find the trend values of some:
(a) Middle periods
(b) End periods
(c) Starting periods
(d) extreme periods
27. The best fitting trend is one which the sum of squares of residuals is:
(a) Negative
(b) Least
(c) Zero
(d) Maximum
28. In fitting of a straight line, the value of slope remains unchanged by change of:
(a) Scale
(b) Origin
(c) Both origin and scale
(d) None of them
29. Depression in business is:
(a) Secular trend
(b) Cyclical
(c) Seasonal
(d) Irregular
30. In fitting of straight line = 0
(a) All the observed Y values lie on the line
(b) All the Y values are greater than corresponding values
(c) All the Y values are positive
(d) None of them
31. The rise and fall of a time series over periods longer than one year is called:
(a) secular trend
(b) seasonal variation
(c) Cyclical variation
(d) irregular variation
32. A Time series has_____component s.
(a) Two
(b) Three
(c) Four
(d) Five
33. The multiplicative time series model is:
(a) Y = T + S + C + I
(b) Y = TSCI
(c) Y = a + bX
(d) Y = a + bX + cX²
34. The additive model of the time series is:
(a) Y = T + S + C + I
(b) Y = TSCI
(c) Y = a + bX
(d) Y = a + bX + cX²
35. The difference between the actual value of the time series and the forecasted value is called:
(a) Residual
(b) Sum of variation
(c) Sum of squares of residual
(d) All of the above
36. A pattern that is repeated throughout a time series and has a recurrence period of at most one year is called:
(a) Cyclical variation
(b) Irregular variation
(c) Seasonal variation
(d) Long term variation
37. When the production of a thing is maximum, this stage is called:
(a) Boom
(b) Recovery
(c) Recession
(d) Depression
38. When the production of a thing is minimum, this stage is called:
(a) Prosperity
(b) Recession
(c) Recovery
(d) Depression
39. When the production of thing is increasing towards prosperity, this stage is called as:
(a) Recession
(b) Recovery
(c) Boom
(d) Depression
40. When the production of thing is decreasing, this stage is called:
(a) Recession
(b) Recovery
(c) Prosperity
(d) Depression
41. For odd number of years, formula to code the values of X by taking origin at center is:
(a) X = year – Middle of years
(b) X = year – first year
(c) X = year – last year
(d) X = year – ½ average of years
42. For even number of years when origin is in the center and the unit of X being one year, then X can be coded as:
(a) X = (year – average of years)/2
(b) X = year – average of Middle two years
(c) X = year – 0.5 average of years
(d) X = average of years – year
43. For even number of years when origin is in the center and the unit of X being half year, then X can be coded as:
(a) X = year – average of years
(b) X = 2(year – average of Middle two years)
(c) X = (year – average year)/2
(d) X = year – ½ average of years
44. In semi averages method, if the number of values is odd then we drop:
(a) First value
(b) Last value
(c) Middle value
(d) Middle two values
45. The trend values in freehand curve method are obtained by:
(a) Equation of straight line
(b) Graph
(c) Second degree parabola
(d) All of the above
46. The most important factors causing seasonal variations are ______.
(a) growth in population
(b) technological improvements
(c) weather and social customs
(d) change in fashions
47. The most widely used method of measuring seasonal variations is _______.
(a) ratio-to-moving average method
(b) ratio-to-trend method
(c) link relative method
(d) method of simple average
48. In the least square linear trend equation Y= a + bX. if b is positive, it indicates ______.
(a) declining trend
(b) rising trend
(c) no trend at all
(d) all of these
49. Cyclical fluctuations are caused by _________.
(a) wars
(b) earthquakes
(c) floods
(d) none
50. Time-series analysis is based on the assumption that _______.
(a) random error terms are normally distributed
(b) there are dependable correlations between the variable to be forecast and other independent
(c) variables.
(d) past patterns in the variable to be forecast will continue unchanged into the future.
(e) the data do not exhibit a tr-end.
51. Which of the following is not one of the four types of variation that is estimated in time-series analysis?
(a) Predictable
(b) Trend
(c) cyclical
(d) Irregular
52. In time-series analysis, which source of variation can be estimated by the ratio-to-trend method?
(a) seasonal
(b) Trend
(c) cyclical
(d) Irregular
53. Number of periods included in a group for moving averages depend on _______ in a time series data
(a) Curvilinear trend
(b) Cyclic fluctuations
(c) Seasonal fluctuations
(d) Period of oscillation
54. A rise in price before Eid is an _________.
(a) seasonal trend
(b) secular Trend
(c) cyclical trend
(d) Irregular trend
55. The most commonly used mathematical method for measuring the trend is _______.
(a) Moving average method
(b) semi average method
(c) least square
(d) ratio to trend
56. The best-fitted trend line is one for which sum of squares of residuals or errors is
(a) positive
(b) negative
(c) zero
(d) minimum
57. The 3 yearly moving average for the year 2005 is given by _______.
|
Year |
2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
|
Y |
3 |
6 |
9 |
3 |
4 |
(a) 3
(b) 9
(c) 6
(d) 0
58. For the given data semi averages for the first half is given by _______.
|
Year |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
|
Y |
20 |
16 |
9 |
11 |
40 |
23 |
21 |
12 |
(a) 13
(b) 15
(c) 16
(d) 14
59. For the straight-line equation Y= 56+12X, the trend value for X=-3 is given by _____.
(a) 23
(b) 36
(c) 20
(d) 68
60. For the given data short term fluctuations for the year 2013 by using additive model is given by _______.
|
Year |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
|
Y |
80 |
90 |
92 |
83 |
94 |
|
Trend value |
84 |
86 |
88 |
90 |
92 |
(a) 4
(b) -4
(c) 0.95
(d) -0.95
61. For the given data short term fluctuations for the year 2014 by using Multiplicative model is given by _______.
|
Year |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
|
Y |
80 |
90 |
92 |
83 |
94 |
|
Trend value |
84 |
86 |
88 |
90 |
92 |
(a) 1.046
(b) -1.046
(c) -4
(d) 1
62. Shortage of certain consumer goods before annual budget is due to
(a) Secular trend
(b) Irregular variation
(c) Seasonal variation
(d) Cyclical variation
63. Linear trend of a time series indicates towards .
(a) constant rate of growth
(b) constant rate of change
(c) change in geometric progression
(d) all the above
64. The method of moving average is used to find the
(a) Seasonal trend
(b) Irregular trend
(c) Secular trend
(d) Cyclical trend
65. If trend is absent in the data then ________method is used of computing seasonal indices.
(a) ratio to trend
(b) Simple Average
(c) semi average
(d) ratio to moving average
66. The method of least squares indicates that we choose the regression line where the sum of the square of deviations of the points from the line is .
(a) positive
(b) Maximum
(c) Zero
(d) Minimum
67. Variations in a time series are caused by sale of air condition increase during summer.
(a) Seasonal
(b) Irregular
(c) Secular
(d) Cyclic
68. Trend in a time series means .
(a) long-term regular movement
(b) short-term regular movement
(c) both (a) and (b)
(d) neither (a) nor (b)
69. A time series is a set of data recorded .
(a) at successive points of time
(b) periodically
(c) at time or space intervals
(d) all the above
70. Which of the following is not present in a time series?
(a) Seasonality
(b) Operational variations
(c) Trend
(d) Cycle
71. A lock-out in a factory for a month belongs to _______ component of a time series.
(a) Irregular variation
(b) Secular trend
(c) Cyclical variation
(d) None
72. The sales of departmental store on Dushera and Diwali are associated with the component of a time series _________ variation.
(a) Trend
(b) Seasonal
(c) Irregular
(d) Cyclical
73. The consistent increase in production of cereals constitutes the component of a time series ________.
(a) Seasonal Variation
(b) Cyclical Variation
(c) Secular Trend
(d) None
74. Secular trend is indicative of long-term variation towards ___________.
(a) Increase only
(b) Decrease only
(c) Either increase or decrease
(d) None
75. Irregular variations in a time series are caused by ___________.
(a) Lockouts and strikes
(b) Epidemics
(c) Floods
(d) All the above
76. Least Square method to estimate trend line in Time series consists of estimating _______ constants.
(a) Zero
(b) Two
(c) Less than two
(d) More than two.
77. Simple average method is used to find ________.
(a) Seasonal Variation
(b) Cyclic Variation
(c) Secular trend
(d) None
78. Most frequently used mathematical model of time series is __________ model.
(a) Additive
(b) Multiplicative
(c) Mixed
(d) Regression
79. The additive model assumes the components of time series are _____ of each other.
(a) dependent
(b) inter connected
(c) independent
(d) None
80. The ________ model of Ztime Series assumes all the component of time series are dependenet.
(a) Additive
(b) Multiplicative
(c) Mixed
(d) regression
81. The linear trend of sales of a company is Rs. 6,50,000 in 1995 and it rises by Rs.16,500 per year. Trend equation is given by __________
(a) Y = 6,50,000+16,500 X with origin year 1995
(b) Y = 16,500+6,50,000 X with origin year 1995
(c) Y = 6,50,000 - 16,500 X with origin year 1995
(d) Y = 6,50,000 - 16,500 t
82. The linear trend equation of sales of a company is given by Y = 6,50,000+16,500 X : with origin year 1995 and X is 1 unit =1 Year : Predicted sales for the year 2000 is __________
(a) 6,50,000
(b) 16,5000
(c) 33,650,000
(d) 7,32,500
83. y = 85·6 + 2·4x ; Origin 2000 ; x unit = 1 year , y = Annual production of sugar (in ’000 quintals) ___________ slope of line.
(a) 2.4 quintals
(b) 85.6 quintals
(c) 2400 quintals
(d) 24000 quintals
84. Trend equation y = 85.6 – 2.4x ; Origin 2000 ; x unit = 1 year , shows ____________ trend
(a) increasing
(b) Decreasing
(c) constant
(d) non linear
85. Trend equation y = 85.6 + 2.4x ; Origin 2000 ; x unit = 1 year , y = Annual production of sugar (in ’000 quintals) has ___________ as the monthly increase in the production.
(a) 0.2 quintals
(b) 200 quintals
(c) 2400 quintals
(d) 24000 quintals
86. For the additive model in time series analysis, for annual data the difference Y – T represents ___________ fluctuations.
(a) seasonal, cyclical and irregular
(b) seasonal and cyclical
(c) cyclical and irregular
(d) seasonal and irregular
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